Who’s next to be sacked…?

Who’s next to be sacked…?

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Who's next to be sackedWho's next Manager to be sacked?

Who’s next to be sacked…?

We are in the last third of the championships in Europe.

Some of the teams are over-achieving. Some of the teams are under-achieving, and some of them are in line with the expectations.

We would make an simple analysis analysis who’s next to be sacked based on the methodology introduced by D-r Hope  from the Cambridge University back in 2003 – When Should You Sack a Football Manager?

This methodology was a significant step in the area of academic managerial analysis for football. The basis of this methodology is the “trapdoor”, or the average number of points per game a league managers achieves.

According to this methodology, the club, or the club owner have three choices, to determine:

  • the honeymoon period, i.e. the period in which they will not consider sacking the new manager,
  • the “trapdoor”, if he gets falls below this, he will get the sack,
  • the weight that they will give to the recent games compared to earlier ones, i.e. smoothing the manager’s results.

He made an analysis of mean points by finishing position for the period: 1995/96-2000/01

Position      Points/season  Points/game

1 – 3              74.78                 1.968
4 – 7             60.96                 1.604
8 – 13           50.31                  1.324
14 – 17         41.38                  1.089
18 – 20        33.56                  0.883

The “trapdoor” according to this methodology should be set on 0.74 points per game for the last 10 matches.

We’ve analyzed the performances from top 5 leagues in Europe, as a source of this analysis we’ve used Whoscored.com

Who’s next to be sacked from Premier League?

According to the Points Per Game, and the “Trapdoor” these are the potential candidates to sack:

  1. Sean Dyche – Burnley
    In the last 10 games Burnley has 0.5 points per game which is below the “trapdoor”. So far he has accumulated 37 points in the season or 1.32 points per game. Currently standing on 7th position this point per game ratio is below the mean points per game from previous seasons.
    This is what statistics say, however Burnley as a football team doesn’t has a policy of sacking managers from a poor form. As mentioned above they are on 7th position which way above the 16th place from last year, meaning this is less likely to occur.
  2. Alan Pardew – West Bromwich Albion
    Even though he has been only 3 months on this position, Alan Pardew has 0.823 Points Per Game which is below the mean for relegation from previous seasons.
    However his record from last 10 games is 0.5 point per game in the last 10 games with West Bromwich Albion, way below the “trapdoor”, and it is most likely he will get sack at the end of the season.
  3. Other managers near to be sack:
    1. Sam Allardyce – Everton, 0.9 points per game in the last 10 games, and 1.21 points per game so far in the season,which is below the 1.324 mean PPG for a position 8-13
    2. David Wagner – Huddersfield, 0.9 points per game in the last 10 games, and 1.07 points per game so far in the season,which is below the 1.089 mean PPG for a position 14-17
    3. Mauricio Pellegrino – Southampton, 0.9 points per game in the last 10 games, and 0.96 points per game so far in the season,which is below the 1.089 mean PPG for a position 14-17

Who’s next to be sacked from Premier League?

With the data we had from our source  and the methodology used, we believe that what we’ve concluded is close to the reality.

We still wonder who do you think is the next to be sacked from Premier League?

Please share and write you opinion about this.

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