Who’s next to be sacked…? – Italy

Who’s next to be sacked…? – Italy

- in Analysis
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Massimo Oddo, who's next to be sackedMassimo Oddo

Who’s next to be sacked…? – Italy, Serie A

This text is continuation to the previous post where we analyzed Premier League.

For all of you that haven’t read the post here are some key point touched.

Some of the teams are over-achieving. Some of the teams are under-achieving, and some of them are in line with the expectations.

This is a simple analysis analysis who’s next to be sacked based on the methodology introduced by D-r Hope  from the Cambridge University back in 2003 – When Should You Sack a Football Manager?

This methodology was a significant step in the area of academic managerial analysis for football. The basis of this methodology is the “trapdoor”, or the average number of points per game a league managers achieves.

According to this methodology, the club, or the club owner have three choices, to determine:

  • the honeymoon period, i.e. the period in which they will not consider sacking the new manager,
  • the “trapdoor”, if he gets falls below this, he will get the sack,
  • the weight that they will give to the recent games compared to earlier ones, i.e. smoothing the manager’s results.

We have made an analysis of the performances of the clubs in the Serie A for the period: 2007/08-2016/17

Position      Points/season  Points/game

1 – 3              80.13                 2.11
4 – 7             62.35                 1.64
8 – 13           49.32                 1.30
14 – 17         40.68                 1.07
18 – 20        29.63                 0.78

The “trapdoor” according to this methodology should be set on 0.74 points per game for the last 10 matches.

As a source of this analysis we’ve used Whoscored.com

Who’s next to be sacked from Serie A?

According to the Points Per Game, and the “Trapdoor” these are the potential candidates to sack:

  1. Guiseppe Iachini – Sassuolo
    In the last 10 games Sassuolo has 0.33 points per game which way is below the “trapdoor”. So far he has accumulated 23 points in the season or 0.88 points per game. Currently they are standing on 16th position this point per game ratio is way below the mean points per game 1.07  from previous seasons  for position 14-17.
    Considering their history with managers, it is most likely that they will sack the manager.
    But, who knows, maybe they will decide to leave him to manage the team in Serie B, but this is most unlikely.
  2. Roberto De Zerbi – Benevento
    He has been in charge of the club since 25.10.2017, yet without any significant success, the team has managed to gain only 10 points from 26 games. Relegation is secured.
  3. Rolando Maran – Chievo, 0.5 points per game in the last 10 games, and 0.96 points per game so far in the season,which is below the 1.089 the mean PPG for a position 14-17
  4. Massimo Oddo- Udinese, 0.66 points per game in the last 10 games, and 1.26 points per game so far in the season,which is below the 1.3 mean PPG for a position 8-13. Regardless of the current position this once famous defender, and now manager, most likely will be sacked at the end of the season.
    The team in the recent seasons is way below the league position, where they normally should be- top 10, instead of bottom 10 in Serie A.

Who’s next to be sacked from Serie A?

With the data we had from our source  and the methodology used, we think that this analysis might be very close to what will happen at the end of the season.

We are aware that the quality of the Italian football has drastically decreased in the recent years, but still there are some bright spots like Juventus and Napoli, that are playing on a highest level each season in each of the competitions.

 

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